WTO hikes 2025 trade growth outlook

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GENEVA:

AI-related goods and a surge in exports to the United States to beat President Donald Trump\“s tariff hikes boosted global merchandise trade growth this year, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday.

However, the picture is bleaker for 2026, the WTO warned, as the impact of those tariffs kicks in.



The WTO raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent — up from 0.9 percent in August — and slashed its 2026 outlook from 1.8 percent to 0.5 percent.

“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,“ the WTO said, as it published its updated global trade outlook.

In an unusual move, the global trade body has revised its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties surrounding the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has slapped several waves of new tariffs on imports entering the United States. His administration has imposed a basic tariff of 10 percent on all countries since April, with much higher rates for some economies.

“Countries\“ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world — particularly among emerging economies — helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,“ WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.